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Friday, December 10, 2010

The Fed wants MORE (?!) inflation

I know, everyone is taking pot-shots at the Federal Reserve (the YouTube video is hilarious!).  I, however, feel especially privileged to do so not because I read a lot of finance, investing and economics, but because I've always been critical of the Fed.

The Fed was originally created in 1913 after the financial panic of 1907 to prevent banking crises.  Bankers and the government had decided that banking crises could be prevented with a lender of last resort, and many judged that a government agency would be better for this purpose than the ad hoc committee of New York bankers, led by J.P. Morgan, who had previously and successfully dealt with banking crises in the past.  The original goal of the Fed was to be this lender of last resort.

Fast forward to the present, and the Fed's mandate is to maintain price stability and full employment (never mind that the Fed has a lot of control over the former and none over the latter).  As you may have quickly surmised, this has nothing to do with its original mandate.

The people at the Fed long ago decided that deflation (declining prices) was the bane of human existence after the experience of the Great Depression and watching Japan's last 20 years.  They seem to have forgotten, however, that both of those experiences were due to bad loans and not an inadequate supply of money. 

With this background, those at the Fed would much rather experience inflation than deflation.  In their infinite wisdom, they are now working hard to create inflation to fight off the boogie-man of deflation  They want to increase inflation to boost employment (never mind that inflation won't boost employment). 

But, to normal people, declining prices seem like a good thing.  In fact, during a deep recession and recovery with 10% unemployment, most people think declining prices might be a very good thing.

That's because most people haven't been lobotomized by a PhD in economics to believe that declining prices (deflation) or stable prices (gold standard) are a bad thing. 

Most people, too, understand that printing money to create inflation won't create prosperity, but will lead to extremely negative economic consequences (Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany, anyone?). 

Why don't the people at the Fed possess such common sense?

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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