The stock market wakes up to global risk

Surprisingly--to me, at least--the market has finally woken up to global economic risks.

The signs were there before: commodity prices tanking, emerging markets in heavy decline, state interventions in Greece and China, accusations of broad corruption in places like Brazil.

The question investors will be asking themselves over the weekend is: is this the beginning of a bear market or just a brief pullback to be bought into?

I'll spoil the suspense: no one knows. Only in hindsight is it clear when bear markets begin versus temporary pullbacks.

What I do know is that a significant pullback or a bigger bear market are both opportunities for investors. During such times, psychology takes over as some people panic, and that means something is being sold too cheaply.

To benefit from such situations, the goal is not to pick the absolute bottom in the stock market or a particular stock, but to know what specific securities are worth--after arduous research--and then to buy accordingly.

When people ask me if such pullbacks scare me, I always say "No!"  Such times are great opportunities to benefit from the panic of others.

In other words, I'm excited to go shopping.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

China and Greece: sound and fury signifying nothing?

Just a couple of weeks ago, you couldn't look at the news without seeing dire predictions about Greece leaving the European Union or China's stock market tanking. Now, it seems like these perils have passed and there's nothing to worry about. That's unlikely the case.

I'm an optimist by nature, and I tend to think things will work out in the long run. That does not, however, make me a Pollyanna. I don't think that problems in Greece or China are the end of the world. But, I also think it's naive to think that such issues were insubstantial and likely to fade with so little hardship.

Greece still can't pay back its loans, and they are still demonstrating little desire to reform. European lenders still want their loans repaid, and seem unlikely to grant Greece forgiveness for large amounts of debt. In other words, the situation hasn't really changed, and therefore still requires careful observation.

China's stock market did not tank because of some bizarre conspiracy. Like all markets that have been artificially pumped up, it must necessarily deflate. Any attempts to defy that natural process are doomed to fail one way or the other. The underlying issue of China's economy slowing down has not changed. The political and economic consequences are non-trivial and demand watching.

Markets have a natural ebb and flow, just like nature. And, just like nature, those ebbs and flows are largely unpredictable over the short term. That doesn't mean you can't see broader themes evolving. It was easy to see that the tech bubble of the late 1990's would pop, but impossible to predict when. It was easy to see that the housing market of the mid 2000's would burst, but impossible to predict precisely when.

Greece and China have real problems that will eventually reverberate throughout the global economy. I don't know precisely when these issues will loom large, but I do know they haven't been resolved. This is not a good time to ignore those risks.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

China: more important than Greece

While most of the world was overly focused on Greece, bigger things were afoot in China.

First, the Chinese economy is the 2nd largest in the world. What happens in China matters for the world economy. In contrast, Greece's economy is but 2% of the European economy. Although Greece's problems are likely to become broader problems in Portugal, Spain, Italy and France, by itself Greece doesn't have a big impact on the world economy.

Second, China's economy is still essentially run by a communist central planning authority. They are giving some free market principles a try, but they have maintained a firm grip on the most important things. How they react to the inevitable ups and downs any economy faces is important for understanding how the world economy will do in coming years and decades.

Over the last year, the Chinese government has been showing they aren't ready for prime time. First, they have reacted to economic slowing--inevitable in any economic system, whether capitalistic, communistic, socialistic, etc.--with attempts to prop things up. As usual, such attempts look good in the short term but fail over time. Governments just aren't any good at allocating capital.

Second, they are misreading market reactions and have basically lost their cool. After trying to use free markets to boost their economy, they are now trying to prevent markets from clearing by forcing large stockholders to hold instead of selling. There is nothing that spooks markets more than a government's attempts to force the outcome they want instead of the natural equilibrium that would otherwise exist.

This a classic reversal of cause and effect. Stock markets, like all markets, react to news by adjusting prices to make supply and demand match at market clearing prices. Any attempt to prevent that mechanism from operating in the short term leads to disastrous effects in the long run. Markets are effects, not causes, contrary to how many politicians and historians like to interpret the facts.

The more the Chinese government continues to overreact and try controlling outcomes, the more world markets will overreact as a result. Such impacts will be much worse than letting markets find equilibrium. Just witness commodity price swings in reaction to Chinese intervention and you can get a flavor for how nasty things can get. 

I think what is going on in China should be watched much more closely than what is happening in Greece. The stakes and consequences are much greater.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

The stock market could jump up or tank this summer, be prepared

Will the market drop this summer? Does it matter? Yes, and no.

The hardest thing about investing is dealing with emotional swings. People really want the market to go up and never go down, but wishing won't make it so.

These emotional swings lead people to make big mistakes. Many sold in 2008-2009 and haven't gotten re-invested. The opportunity cost of that is HUGE.

It's better just to start with the premise that the market can go up 100% and down 50% (as Benjamin Graham suggested decades ago). Just accept that now because it has throughout recorded history.

If you are rattled by that prospect, then you don't belong in the game (and you'll have to save roughly three times more money per year to reach the same goal as someone who is investing in stocks).

If you invest, you must be prepared for such swings, even though that is tough to do.

Could the market tank this summer? Yes. Will it? No one knows. If it does, you need to be emotionally prepared to handle a drop.

Could the market continue marching up and double over the next 7 years? Sure. Will it? No one knows, so just be prepared.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

What do you do when price goes down?

When you buy a new car and drive it off the lot, the price others would pay for it goes down that instant. In fact, on average, the market price of a new car declines 20% in the first year. How do you react to that?

Did you make a mistake in buying? Did you think about that price drop ahead of time? Would you feel better or worse if you had daily, monthly, quarterly or annual price quotes on  your purchase?

These questions are not idle chatter, because any investment you make will decline in market price at some point in time. If you respond rationally to that decline, you'll get very satisfactory results over time. If you don't, you'll be your own worst enemy.

Every investment rises and falls in price over time. Go ahead and accept that right now. Cash fluctuates with inflation and deflation; bonds fluctuate with interest rates; commodities fluctuate with supply and demand; stocks fluctuate with all the above and more. It's a fact of life.

If you expect fluctuations to occur, you can react prudently to market price--benefiting from volatility. If you hope your investments will only go up in price, you'll panic and sell at the wrong time. That will lead to lousy results.

Acknowledge it right now: whatever you buy will fall in price at some point in time. You should be prepared, specifically, to see any stock you buy both drop by half and double over time. How can you possibly sleep at night or react prudently to such an acknowledgement? By clearly understanding the difference between market price and underlying value.

As Warren Buffett put it, price is what you pay and value is what you get. Let me modify that statement a little: market price is the amount you'd pay or receive if you had to buy or sell RIGHT NOW! If you don't have to buy or sell right now, market price should not be your main focus.

Market price is the intersection of the price a seller is willing to sell and the price a buyer is willing to buy. If the seller is panicking, they are likely to take a lower price. If the seller is euphoric, they're likely to want a higher price. When sellers and buyers agree to make a transaction, that's market price.

But, what if particular buyers and sellers aren't knowledgeable or rational. What if they are panicking like they did in early 2009, or overly euphoric about technology stocks like they were in early 2000? In those cases, market price may not be a very good indication of underlying value.

Market price tends to depend on who is doing the selling and buying at any point in time. If the people you are selling to or buying from are sober-minded, intelligent, knowledgeable, then market price and value are likely very similar. If not, then not.

Underlying value is the value to someone sober-minded, intelligent, knowledgeable. Think about someone who has been in an industry for 30 years, who knows and understands suppliers and buyers, who grasps the full context of where the industry has been and is going, who knows growth rates, input prices, distributors, shipping costs, financing rates, the competition, etc.

When that expert looks at a business, they don't think about market price, they think about dividends, returns on investment, cash needs, industry dynamics, and they think about it over the long term. When an expert comes up with what a business is worth, that assessment is based all the relevant information available at the time, and will much more accurately reflect the long range value of the business. Unlike Wall Street analysts and most investors, an expert isn't thinking about market price in 6 months or 6 seconds, they are thinking about customers, buildings, factories, raw materials, long term contracts.

To successfully invest, you need to focus on underlying value instead of market price. Market price then becomes your servant instead of your master. If buyers and sellers are scared, you may want to buy from them. If they are euphoric, you may want to sell to them. At all other times, you look at their price quotes like a disinterested shopper. You aren't forced to buy or sell and aren't swayed by the crowd's frequent price quotes and dramatically shifting opinions.

This is the key to successful investing. If you need to buy and sell right away, market price is your guide, and you're likely get a poor deal. If you don't need to buy and sell, then you should feel free to focus on underlying value first and market price second.

In this way, you benefit from swings in the market. If you focus on what the expert does: long term cash flows, industry dynamics, underlying asset values, etc., you can easily take or leave market prices. Then you can buy assets cheap and sell them expensive, and you'll get very nice returns.

But, if you focus primarily on market prices, you'll panic when price drops and sell at the bottom, or become euphoric as prices climb and buy at the top. That's what most people do in the stock market, and that's why they get lousy results.

Next time the price of something you own drops, ask yourself if you are focused on market price or underlying value. If the truth is that you don't know anything about the underlying value of what you own, you shouldn't be investing your own money. If you are focused on underlying value, ask yourself if you would be panicking if you owned the whole business. It is, after all, a portion of the business that you own. 

Yes, the future may not look as good as the past. Yes, competitors or the economic cycle may be making things difficult, but did the value of your buildings, factories, inventory, cash and future cash flows really drop by 30% just because reported earnings missed Wall Street's forecast by 5%? 

If no, then it's probably time to buy more of the business. If yes, then take a week or month to think about and review all the relevant data, and wait until your emotions have simmered down. In the cold light of full analysis, you may decide the business isn't as bad off as others think. Or, you may decide it really is doomed and you should sell. Wait until you're sober-minded to do so.

Make market price your servant, not your master. Focus on underlying value. Your net worth will reflect this choice over time.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Unsurprising drop

The stock market was down 2.5% on its first trading day of June. This follows a decline of 6.8% in May, leaving stocks down 10.2% since its high of April this year, and down 18.9% since the high of October 2007. This seems to have surprised, and even shocked, many investors.

When asked what the stock market would do, J.P. Morgan famously said, "It will fluctuate." Benjamin Graham told investors (in his book The Intelligent Investor) to resign themselves in advance "to the probability rather than the mere possibility that most of his holdings will advance, say, 50% or more from their low point and decline the equivalent of one-third or more from their high point at various periods."

In other words, the stock market is a roller coaster, and investors should anticipate and even expect frequent stomach-churning drops and thrilling climbs along the way. These drops are not a sign of something unusual and dreaded, but something expected and even eagerly anticipated. Why? Because drops lead to opportunity as merchandise that cost $100 a few days ago is now on sale for less (sometimes, much less).

As I pointed out in my posts, Better than zero and "Where's the market going next year?", the math underlying expected future returns should have warned investors to anticipate drops. And, as I expressed in my post, All eyes on China, news of slowing growth from China would likely lead markets lower, and it has.

I think investors were surprised because they don't think of the stock market as a roller coaster, or they try too hard to relish the climbs and forget the inevitable drops. Perhaps they also suffer from myopia, attending to recent company reports and economic news instead of thinking about longer term data. 

Nevertheless, drops will happen, and they should be exploited instead of feared. Lower prices mean higher future returns--clearly a good thing. Panicky investors that sell as the market drops benefit longer term investors that buy from them. I'm not saying the drops won't pull at your stomach--they will. What I'm saying is drops are to be expected and wise investors will have the courage to act as the market drops to exploit short-term oriented investors.

I'm not panicking as my portfolio drops, but lining up my buy list and making purchases as the market sinks. The more it sinks, the more I'll buy. Just like riding a roller coaster, I look forward to the plunges and climbs, because that's the nature of the beast.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Growing potential energy

They say patience is a virtue.  That doesn't mean it's a whole lot of fun.

Sometimes, I feel like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, waking up to the same day each and every day and wishing the cycle would end.  Each day, I research individual companies with a focus on businesses with competitive advantages and good management selling at low prices.  On rare days, when prices deviate enough from fundamentals to merit action, I do some buying and selling.  And yet, the cheap companies keep getting cheaper and the expensive ones just get more expensive.  I'm waiting patiently for this cycle to end, but it's not much fun. 

Unlike Bill in the movie, I'm not trying anything radical to break out of the cycle.  As Bill eventually discovers, the cycle ends not from bold or wild action, but from doing the right things.  The cycle of the cheap getting cheaper and expensive getting more expensive will end, too.  I just need to stay true to my purpose.

So, what allows me to maintain patience?  Just like I know virtue leads to happiness and diet and exercise lead to weight loss, I know that buying cheap and selling expensive works over time.  Added to this, I understand the concept of growing potential energy. 

Potential energy is the result of a force acting on an object over time.  When a spring is compressed, it has a lot of potential energy.  That potential energy is eventually turned into kinetic energy when the spring is released. 

The force, in this case, is crowd momentum causing the expensive to get more expensive.  That force, applied over time, is compressing a metaphorical spring, conversely making the cheap become cheaper.  That very process, though, leads to its own resolution.  Because the system is not in equilibrium, the longer and further the spring is compressed, the more dramatic the eventual release of kinetic energy when the spring's potential energy is transformed.

I have to be patient because no one knows how long crowd momentum will compress the spring (6 years and running, so far).  But, knowing that the spring is just getting more and more compressed, creating a growing reserve of potential energy, makes it easier to be patient.  I know that the longer the spring is compressed, the greater the reward--the release of kinetic energy--once momentum runs its course.

Or, as 17th century philosopher Spinoza put it, all things excellent are as difficult as they are rare.  I'm feeling keenly the difficult and rare part, in time I will gain the excellence as well.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Selling low and buying high

Sometimes the stock market seems like a machine designed to produce regret.

When the market goes down, most people hang on until they reach a point of maximum pain and they sell. That's when the market starts to climb back up again.

When the market goes back up, most people wait for the market to pull back (so they can "buy back in"). When the pull back doesn't occur and the market continues to climb, they reach a point of maximum regret and buy back in. That's when the market starts to tank again.

And so the story goes on and on over time. People end up buying at the top and selling at the bottom, en masse, because they invest using their psychological inclinations instead of their heads. That's what allows calmer minds to make money over time.

The financial press is full of articles about those who sold at the bottom and are now regretting it and buying back in at the top. Why don't people learn that trying to time the market doesn't work?

This fear and regret cycle has repeated twice over the last 6 months. As the market tanked in October and November of last year, people sold at the bottom. As the market climbed out of those lows, the same people bought back in only to see the market tank again in March. Guess what happened from March to May? Rinse and repeat.

Why don't people just accept that their psychological inclinations are almost always wrong when it comes to investing in the stock market? I don't know. Tons of studies have shown that people make bad investing decisions using their psychological reactions. And yet they continue to do so.

The stock market will go up and down, I guarantee it. When it feels awful to hold on, you should be buying. When it feels wonderful because things are going up, you should be selling. Do almost the exact opposite of what you feel, and you'll be a better, more successful investor.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Happy New Year!

I enter 2009 as enthusiastic as I've ever been about future returns.

That's not a forecast for returns this year. I don't know what returns the market will generate over the next week, month or year, and anyone who tells you they do know is lying.

What I do know is that stock prices are as low as they've been relative to fundamental business values since the early to mid 1980's.

Does that mean the stock market won't go lower? No.

If the stock market bottoms where it did in the 1970's, it would be 33% lower than it was at year end.

If the market bottoms where it did in the early 1950's, it would be 40% lower than it was at year end.

If the market bottoms where it did during the early 1930's--at its worst during the Great Depression--it would have to go down another 60% or more.

Those aren't forecasts, that's just a report of how bad things could get based on historical information.

But, as Mark Twain said, history doesn't repeat, but it sure does rhyme. No one knows what precisely will happen, even if they get lucky and their prediction turns out to be right.

All a prudent investor can do is invest based on the facts, and the facts say that stocks are cheap. If they get cheaper, then even better bargains will be had. If they get dearer, investors will see their portfolio values climb.

Based on fundamentals, it's reasonable to expect the S&P 500 to be up 10% - 15%, annualized, over the next 5 years. That's unlikely to be a smooth path upward, but it's a very likely outcome.

Even better, carefully selected stocks are likely to do much better than that.

And, that's why I'm as optimistic as I've ever been in my 13 years of investing.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Being a value investor requires painful patience

I'll spare you the academic citations, but there's a solid body of evidence that value investing beats growth investing over the long run.

If it works so well, why isn't everyone a value investor?

Because it hurts.

Value investing is based on a couple of key principles:
1) you can determine the value of a business
2) the price of a business on a stock exchange diverges from value
3) at some point in time, stock price converges on value

The hard part in value investing is point 3).

No one is surprised that you can determine the value of a business.

Not many are surprised (finance and economics academics excluded) that stock prices diverge from value.

The hard part is that first phrase in point 3), "at some point in time." How long do you have to wait for "at some point in time"? As Shakespeare put it, there's the rub.

No value investor knows when the herd mentality of the stock market will converge on underlying value. Why not? You might as well as ask why a weather expert can't predict how many inches of rain will fall on one square inch of land in Bowie, Maryland during a 12 hour period on June 30, 2014. The system is simply too complex for an accurate prediction to be made.

And, as any value investor can tell you (ask Bill Miller), it seldom works the way you think it will.

If the company you've bought consistently reports growing earnings per share, surely then the market will converge. No, it doesn't.

Sometimes price converges on value without any news whatsoever. Sometimes price converges when a company announced declining earnings for quarters on end. Most of the time, while you wait, it doesn't converge at all.

You simply can't know when it will happen.

I've seen it happen in one day, and I've seen it take over 7 years.

And, that's why it works. Most people don't have the patience to wait. They want prices to go up soon...today...RIGHT NOW!!!

Value investing works because few people have the intestinal fortitude to wait.

It's like asking an overweight person about losing weight or a poor person how to become wealthy. They both know the answer. The overweight person will tell you it requires a good diet and exercise, but they won't do it. The poor person will explain that you need to spend less than you make to become wealthy, and yet they won't do it.

The reason it works is not because people don't understand what to do, but because it hurts to do it.

That's why I say that value investors get paid to endure pain. It's painful to wait if you don't know when price will reflect value. It's painful to buy something cheap just to watch it become dramatically cheaper. It's painful to watch fundamental performance deteriorate even though you know it will improve several years from now.

Anyone who has done their homework knows what it takes to beat the market. Value businesses, buy when price is significantly below value, sell when price reflects value. Everyone knows it, but hardly anyone does it.

Why? Because it's painful. But, boy, does it work!

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

It's a great time to invest!

As pessimistic as many of my blogs sound about the stock market as a whole, I must admit I'm very bullish about the specific investments I'm making today.

You see, the market as a whole can be over-valued, or in for a rough ride, and yet you can find specific, long term investments that are very enticing.

I'm finding the best investment opportunities I've seen since the 2002-2003 market trough (when we were coming out of the 2001 recession).

Not only are the investments I'm finding likely to provide excellent returns, they are also higher quality companies than I usually get the opportunity to invest in.

Usually, large, high quality companies are priced at a premium to the market. Today, though, many great businesses are selling at prices that are at distinct discounts to the market and to my assessed business values.

I can't remember a time in the last 12 years where I've been able to buy such premium companies at such low prices!

I don't know when the market will turn, or when my specific investments may out-perform, but I do know I've spent a lot of time assessing their value and I'm very confident that high returns are quite likely over the next 3 to 5 years.

Now, I just need to be patient and wait for the seeds I've planted to sprout and grow. This is a high quality "problem" to have.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Is the stock market projecting a recession?

With the terrible jobs report last weekend and poor retail sales report this week, I would have thought the market would be projecting a recession.

But, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down only 16.3%, the S&P 500 is down only 18.3%, and the Russell 2000 (the most grossly over-valued of the three) is down only 22.6% from their most recent highs.

These may sound like significant falls, but it's normal for the stock market to be down 30-40% during a recession.

In other words, the stock market still seems to be projecting a mid-cycle slowdown despite a lot of data suggesting otherwise.

How should one react to such a situation? This is a great time to be buying!

I can't forecast the top or bottom of the market. And, I'll let you in on a little secret: no one else can, either.

When there's blood running in the streets, you should be buying. That doesn't mean things won't go down further--they almost certainly will. But, knowing that you can't pick the bottom of the market means you should be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. I'm feeling pretty greedy right now.

This is the time to buy cheaply priced businesses with good economics and management. If you take this path, either yourself or with the help of an advisor, your results will be quite satisfactory over the next several years.

I'm finding value in specific companies whose industries are feeling a lot of pain now. Think retail, real estate, building construction and airlines. I still think it's too early for financial services (except some select insurance companies), but that time will come in the not-too-distant future, too.

I think this is a great time to invest, so if you're looking for someone to manage your money and are curious about my services, contact me soon.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Mid-cycle slowdown...or recession?

This question has occurred to me over and over again recently, because some very smart people are coming down on both sides of the argument.

To some, this may not seem very important. In a mid-cycle slowdown, the stock market goes down. In a recession, it goes down even more. If the market goes down either way, who cares?

But, the magnitude and period of decline make this difference very important to people with short term time frames. I'm not one of those people.

The yield curve, retail sales, the housing market, and credit markets all seem to be signaling a recession. The stock market seems to be indicating a mid-cycle slowdown. Employment data and factory activity are near recession levels, but not quite there, yet.

I'm guessing (with the emphasis on guessing) that we're entering a recession. My guess is based on my analysis of past credit cycle declines. Our economy has been increasingly levering itself since the mid-1980's. If deleveraging is occurring--and I believe it is--then a recession seems much more likely.

How does this alter my investment approach? Not much. I know I'm not smart enough to time the market, and especially not to time the economy!

So, how do I invest? Simply put, for the long term. I don't think our economy will go into a 10 year depression. If that were the case, then I'd be building a fallout shelter.

Instead, I'm investing for the eventual recovery that will happen either sooner, or later. Whether sooner or later is less important to me than having selecting good companies--those with good economics, honest and competent managers, that are selling at large discounts to what the company will be worth over full economic cycles.

That's a lot easier to do than trying to figure out what the economy will do in the short term. And, just between you, me and the fencepost...it's also a lot more profitable!

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Is the Fed easing interest rates because it thinks we AREN'T entering a recession???

Surprisingly, the market did well this week.

This is surprising, to me at least, because the Fed cut interest rates another 0.5% and the jobs report came in looking pretty bad.

The Fed did not cut interest rates this week because it thinks the economy is doing well. It especially wouldn't have done so after dropping rates between meetings by 0.75% just last week.

The Fed is clearly signaling the economy is in serious trouble. So why is the market rallying on news the Fed thinks the economy is in serious trouble?

In addition, the job report today was simply awful. It showed the first monthly decline in jobs since the economy was slowly coming out of the last recession. Cause for celebration? Apparently so.

In my opinion, market participants are still digesting the market's significant drop during January. They are also digesting recent economic news, government actions and election results.

The reality is that much more deck-clearing is required in the financial sector, credit markets and housing sector before the next bull market can really take off.

In the meantime, some excellent bargains can be found in select places in the market. Troubling times like this are a big opportunity to prepare for the next upswing, regardless of when or how it comes.

I'm seeing some of the best opportunities I've seen since 2003, and I think those opportunities will grow in number and size in the not-too-distant future.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Recession storm-clouds gathering

Although the latest GDP report showed the US economy grew at a blazing 4.9% in the 3rd quarter, the data looking forward is looking increasingly weak.

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) has gone into negative territory. Our economy has gone into a recession every time the LEI has gone negative, except for once in the late 1960's.

The credit crunch, brought on by lax lending standards to subprime borrowers, is spreading to every credit market. Banks are taking HUGE write-offs, and being forced to make fewer loans as they rebuild their balance sheets.

The employment market looks to be rolling over. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims has risen to 343,000, the highest since June 2004 (except for the spike due to Hurricane Katrina). In June 2004, it was on the way down after the 2001 recession. It's currently on the way up.

Retail sales are looking to be worse Christmas season since the last recession.

Volatility in the bond and stock market has risen dramatically.

Copper prices have been falling.

UPS and Fedex have announced disappointing results looking forward, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average has been diving.

Financial indexes have been tanking, and in a finance-based economy like ours, that's a bad sign.

The one big thing that hasn't confirmed all these dark clouds is the stock market. Either stock investors are more prescient and no recession will occur, or they are deluding themselves into believing things will be okay or the recession won't last long.

My guess is that most stock investors are being overly optimistic, and aren't looking at coming earnings shortfalls.

When companies begin to report earnings next January, I think investors will get an initial shock. Over time, more information will pour out that the economy is in a recession. By the time this evidence is conclusive, the economy will probably be recovering.

Most investors will be scared when they should be greedy. In other words, by the time investors are scared about a recession, stock prices will be low, and it will be a great time to invest.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Social influence plays a big part in outcomes

The success or failure of a venture can be greatly influenced by the early reactions of people.

This statement may seem obvious to you, but a recent academic study recently showed just how important initial reactions can be on success or failure.

I read about the study in Michael Mauboussin's recent Legg Mason article. Three Columbia University sociology researchers set up a website where people could download music. 20% of the people who went to the website were provided with no information about what others had downloaded. Another 8 groups (10% each) were formed which could see download rankings.

The study showed that top songs tended to finish in the top, and bottom songs tended to finish at the bottom regardless of whether download rankings were available. But, the vast majority of songs in the middle were ranked very differently depending on whether people could see download frequency.

In fact, the study showed that once 1/3 of the participants had downloaded songs, the next 2/3 of people followed their lead. This lead to very different outcomes between the 8 groups who could see download frequency.

In other words, the intrinsic quality of songs was trumped by the cumulative advantage of social influence for the vast majority of songs. Songs downloaded frequently by a group were then downloaded more frequently by others, creating cumulative advantage.

This may seem obvious when you think about Betamax versus VHS digital video tapes, or Apple versus Microsoft Windows, or, more recently, iPod versus any other MP3 player.

The same is undoubtedly true for picking investments. In the short term, people pile into the same investments that everyone else is talking about, regardless of the intrinsic value of the underlying business.

Luckily, the market has the benefit of quarterly and annual earnings reports, which force stock prices to track with underlying value over the fullness of time.

This doesn't mean that stock prices are always right--quite the opposite.

Don't judge an investment by what it's stock does over the short term if you're a long term investor. Otherwise, you may suffer from the social influence of following the crowd.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Is the Fed cutting interest rates really a good thing?

It seems like market participants have been wishing, hoping and praying that the Fed will cut interest rates for over a year now. Unfortunately, this may not be a good sign for the market, but a clear signal of worse things to come.

You see, the Fed cuts interest rates not because things are going great, but because they are seeing clear signals the economy is headed for rough waters.

In fact, the stock market has historically dropped around 40% during an average recession, so the Fed cutting interest rates may not be a signal market participants should be cheering about.

Two weeks ago, John Hussman had a brief section on this subject in his weekly Market Comment. He posted a couple of graphs showing how the S&P 500 did during Fed rates cuts that led up to the 2000-2001 and 1981-1982 recessions.

From 2000-2001, the Fed cut interest rates from 6.5% to 1.25%, and yet the S&P 500 tanked around 41.1% over that same period.

From 1981-1982, the Fed cut rates from 20% down to 11%, and yet the S&P 500 tanked around 21.5%.

The Fed cutting interest rates is not a cure-all that makes the market go up. The market does sometime do well because of rate cuts, but not every time.

So, if you've been betting on the Fed cutting interest rates in hopes of making a killing in the stock market, you may want to consider buying short term bonds instead--they will much more likely benefit.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Protectionism is an economic disaster waiting to happen

On Friday, the Bush administration announced its decision to impose duties on imports of coated paper from China. At the same time, there's bipartisan support in Congress to impose tariffs on Chinese goods unless China allows its currency to appreciate against the dollar more quickly.

Let me quickly quote Santayana, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."

One of the leading causes of the Great Depression was the Smoot Hawley Tariff Act, signed into law on June 17, 1930. This act raised tariffs on 20,000 imported goods and led to a trade war as many countries retaliated by raising tariffs on American goods. The result: American exports and imports plunged by more than half.

Am I saying that these actions will lead to another depression? Not necessarily, but it's a dangerous step in that direction.

If the President, Congress and anti-globalization-types get their way, what would be the result? Chinese currency increasing would probably lead to a higher inflation, higher interest rates, an increase in the cost of goods for most Americans, and maybe a slight, temporary increase in exports.

Higher inflation would mean increased costs for Americans which would further squeeze their already indebted lifestyles. It would also lead to higher interest rates as lenders and bond purchasers demanded higher rates to deal with inflation.

Higher interest rates could lead to dangerous consequences in the housing market as those unable to pay their floating rate mortgages or refinance would have to punt their homes back to their lenders. Higher interest rates would also lead to lower asset prices for stocks, bonds and real estate as investors would insist on higher returns to make up for losses due to inflation.

Higher costs would decrease discretionary income for consumers, leading to higher unemployment and more loan defaults. This could cause a negative spiral in the financial services and housing industries.

Oh, and some special interest groups who have been lobbying Congress will be better off for a couple of weeks before all these negative impacts set in.

Everybody out there should be watching this development like a hawk, because your financial situation may very well depend on the outcome of these recent actions by the President and Congress.

Nothing in this blog should be considered investment, financial, tax, or legal advice. The opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are subject to change without notice. Information throughout this blog has been obtained from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, but such accuracy cannot be guaranteed.